If you were waiting for a clean rebound, don’t.
According to Moody’s Analytics, the next few years won’t bring a housing crash—or a surge—but something harder: a slow, uneven “muddle-through” economy where patience becomes a competitive edge.
Rates will ease, but not dramatically. Inflation will stay sticky. Costs for steel, copper, and labor will keep rising. And mortgage rates? Expect them to hover just above 6% through 2026.
For builders, that means discipline matters more than timing. The winners in this cycle won’t be those who chase growth—they’ll be the ones who manage cash, keep financing close, build efficiently, and adapt faster than their competitors.
Cristian deRitis, Moody’s Deputy Chief Economist, calls it a “grind, not a pop.” But hidden in that grind are opportunities for builders who can read the market, stay liquid, and lean into the right segments.
Because when the market finally shifts, the builders who stayed focused won’t just survive the slowdown—they’ll own the rebound.
See Moody’s full forecast for 2026–2030—and what strategic moves top builders are making right now to stay ahead.
