Builder confidence ticked higher in October—the strongest reading since spring—and for the first time since January, future sales expectations crossed the 50-point breakeven mark. It’s a sign that builders are feeling something they haven’t in a while: cautious optimism.
Mortgage rates have dipped, luxury demand is holding steady, and smaller builders are pivoting to remodeling work to stay busy. Still, this isn’t a full-on rebound. Nearly four in ten builders cut prices last month, and incentives remain stubbornly high. The market is improving—but only in pockets.
NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz says this lift in sentiment could point to better days ahead, with single-family starts expected to climb in 2026. But with affordability tight and costs refusing to budge, it’s too soon to call it a comeback.
So what’s really driving this shift—and how much faith should builders put in it?
